For over two months now, Ukraine has been operating under a new mobilization law. We see horrifying images of conscription-age men being forcibly detained nearly every day on social media and the official press. Public dissatisfaction with these methods often leads to conflicts, isolated, and even relatively large protests. They sometimes turn into direct acts of disobedience and violent resistance, including regular arson attacks on military vehicles.
New clashes with infamous TCC representatives (Territorial Centers of Recruitment and Social Support) are reported almost daily from Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa to Transcarpathia, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk. We frequently come across videos showing resistance from potential draftees. Women often join the fray, literally rescuing men from the TCC’s grip.
Externally, Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) representatives demand ever more reinforcements at the front, even to the extent of reducing the age of those mobilized. Internally, corruption scandals occur among TCC employees, many of whom have essentially turned mobilization into a lucrative business.
It has become increasingly clear that Ukraine, a typical semi-colonial capitalist country in the post-Soviet space, is fundamentally incapable of transforming this war into a nationwide struggle against Russian invasion. The society torn apart by class-antagonistic contradictions have inevitably revealed all of its institutional vulnerabilities. Only those who have money can legally leave the country by circumventing the law. It has reached the point where the Rada is even proposing a separate bill to economically reserve the workers that can pay sufficiently high enough from the war for a period of time.
Those who most zealously defend the current regime in Kyiv and its objectives to reach the 1991 borders, which have lately become less and less elusive, openly call for increased military mobilization involving combat-experienced soldiers. The truth is that this is already happening. However, there are major questions about the combat experience of such “fighters”. And it’s not just about the well-fed and pumped TCC representatives who usually pounce together on a poor man terrified at the prospect of possibly ending up at the front and dying.
A recent fight in Odesa between paramedics and certain activists who came to aid TCC staff has suddenly revealed interesting details and features of forceful mobilization in Ukraine. The incident occurred in the first week of June 2024 – paramedics responded to a call at the Kyev TCC in Odesa. According to one paramedic named Bohdan Velychko, medics witnessed a man with head injuries, nausea, and in poor health condition, upon arrival. The military personnel insisted that the man did not need medical help and did not allow him to be taken to the hospital. Eventually, the medics themselves were detained as military servicemen. What happened next was even more interesting. The paramedics contacted their colleagues, who came to the TCC to rescue the detained. A fight broke out, during which the “hostages” were released.
In the fight with Odesa paramedics, Ukrainian media outlet Strana discovered that members of the Volunteer Police Assistance Units were involved. “Such units were created in every city in Ukraine in 2022. Unit members patrol the streets with the police, stand at city checkpoints with the military, and often assist TCC employees in forcefully mobilizing men of conscription age,” the publication notes.
“Private security companies most often recruit their employees into such units. In some volunteer units, up to 90 percent are employees of security companies. By now, most volunteer units have become freelance employees of the TCC and the police,” the journalists write.
Interestingly, these unit “activists”, according to Strana, do not receive salaries, but they are automatically exempt from mobilization. “Furthermore, cooperation with the TCC and police offers many ways for members to earn side income. For example, they often act as intermediaries in bribing TCC employees—for a certain cut, of course. There are also schemes for earning money by issuing taxi permits at night,” the publication notes.
As we can see, the ruling class in Ukraine has long prepared for possible resistance to the lawlessness from the hands of security forces in the country. The future-planned military police will clearly deal with such acts of disobedience at the official level within the UAF ranks, where those unable to pay off TCC employees due to the simple lack of necessary funds serve at the grassroots level. А планируемая в скором будущем военная полиция очевидно на официальном уровне будет заниматься подобными актами неповиновения уже в рядах ВСУ, где на низовом уровне служат как раз те, кто не смог откупиться от сотрудников ТЦК в силу банального отсутствия нужных для этого средств.
In fact, the presence of various illegal armed formations in Ukraine, which have been loyal to the Kyiv nationalist regime since 2014, is well known. Before the war, they usually terrorized the country’s political dissidents, persecuted communists and other left-wing activists, and carried out any dirty work required by the ruling regime. Now their role is particularly valuable.
In this respect, Ukrainian society in its current state is, strangely enough, a valuable lesson, primarily for the ruling class of Russia. The limits to which one can supposedly “tighten the screws” and create a controlled atmosphere of fear and terror over one’s people, turning the male population into serfs, when having a passport essentially means personal dependence on the ruling class up to one’s life—this social experiment, I believe, has not yet been attempted in the post-Soviet space. Well, the precedent is there now. And whoever examines it diligently, has every chance of implementing it in their own country if necessary.
How many people could the Ukrainian authorities theoretically mobilize? According to the Ukrainian Institute of Demography, Ukraine’s population has decreased from 42 to 35 million over the past two years. And by some estimates, even fewer live in Ukraine now. However, the question remains as to how many can actually fight in the end. The Ministry of Defense estimates that under the new mobilization law, 11.1 million Ukrainian men should have updated their information in the newly created mobile application Reserve+. This includes all citizens aged 18 to 60, regardless of their current country of residence.
Notably, Ukrainian citizenship legislation displays certain “serfdom” features – it is practically impossible to lose the status of a citizen. A lengthy legal procedure and a special Presidential Decree are needed in case by case basis. So even if a Ukrainian has lived in another country all his conscious life and long acquired citizenship there, he is still primarily considered a “subject” of the ruling class, i.e., a Ukrainian citizen. In the current military situation, the state machinery of the ruling Ukrainian class demands, under the mobilization law, that they return to the land of their ancestors and die for its interests.
But back to the calculations. As of today, some conscripts are exempt due to employment at strategically important state facilities. Young people aged 18 to 25 are exempt from combat duty. As a result, far fewer people would be able to fight. What have the first two months of the new mobilization law shown?
Despite pressure, the male population massively refuses to carry out the main “task”—updating their data at the TCC, after which the conscription process automatically begins. After all, the entire idea behind updating data is to count the actual number of potential conscripts for the front.
According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, exactly 4,690,496 conscripts updated their information in these two months so far. And these are generally those who have a real military deferral. However, many more have not updated their information. According to the Verkhovna Rada law enforcement committee, there were as many as 6 million such men, including those who stayed in Ukraine and now have to hide from law enforcement, as well as those who left the country.
Among those who updated their data, the smallest percentage represented Ukrainian citizens living abroad. According to Defense Ministry spokesman Dmitry Lazutkin, only one in ten Ukrainian men of conscription age abroad updated their military data. He said that only 75,000 Ukrainian citizens updated their data abroad. And this is despite the fact that over 800,000 Ukrainian men were registered in EU countries as of April.
Based on this, it can be assumed that the Kyiv regime is beginning to face real difficulties already at the initial stage of implementing its cannibalistic plans to mobilize Ukrainians into the UAF. All of this despite recent optimistic statements by the Ministry of Defense about allegedly doubling the level of mobilization in Ukraine in May and June of this year. It is quite possible to allow for some initial activity in this process due to the draconian norms of the law and low reserves. However, the “updated” data results show that it will only be possible to take Ukrainian men to the front by maximally involving the repressive apparatus of the Ukrainian state.
It is evident that more than half of all conscripted Ukrainians today do not want to fight. Ukrainian residents would rather prefer giving up all their benefits, including basic civil rights, and go underground. And when hundred of thousands end up in the similar pernicious situation, it at least indicates the complete political bankruptcy of the current Kyiv regime. Here is where the real sociology lies.
Let’s continue. Real data on the number of Ukrainians wanted for evading military service has become known from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, thanks to an official request from a Chuhuiv lawyer, Roman Likhachev (Kharkiv region). It should be noted that the military department provided him with figures for 2022–2024, before the mobilization law came into effect. It turned out that at that time, 400,000 Ukrainian men were already wanted. Today, given such a large number of evaders, there will be more than 6 million! Incidentally, the above-mentioned lawyer, in his comments, is concerned not for the men, but for Ukraine’s judicial system, which, in his opinion, is currently unable to physically handle issuing millions of guilty verdicts. However, he believes that this issue can be resolved by hiring more lawyers and judges.
In general, Ukraine’s government machinery is now preparing for a mass crackdown on its citizens. After July 16, the lives of Ukrainian men eligible for military service will no longer be the same. TCCs have now received the database of those who decided to update their information, after which a mass mailing of draft notices will begin. A draft notice will be considered delivered at the person’s place of registration, regardless of whether he receives it personally. Initially, the notices will be received by the individuals who updated their information. Then, by everyone else for whom the residence data in Ukraine would be found. Afterward, a conscripted man will have two options: either report to the military medical commission, then to training, and finally to the front in the absence of a deferral or exemption, or completely go underground and effectively become a fugitive.
In Kyiv, there is a strong reliance on the automated system of fines for conscripts who fail to comply with military registration requirements, such as revocation of driver’s licenses and more. According to the new law, fines for individuals range from 17,000 to 25,500 UAH, and for officials up to 59,500 UAH. If the requirements of the mobilization law are repeatedly ignored, the fines will only increase. Similarly, law enforcement may seize the debtor’s funds, property, and electronic money and sell seized assets to pay off the debt.
A debtor’s sole dwelling will not be seized if the fine amount does not exceed 20 times the minimum wage. However, if a conscripted person receives fines totaling over 160,000 UAH, even the sole dwelling may be taken away. This provision will be implemented if the person cannot pay the fines issued by the TCC, and he has no funds or a vehicle.
This indeed creates a very harsh system, where a person is first deprived of the ability to work since an employer has no right to hire without TCC permission, then deprived of a means of subsistence, with bank accounts frozen and movable, and eventually immovable property seized.
Being a draft evader in Ukraine is now only possible by working illegally or constantly hiding with relatives and living off them for years. Essentially living as a complete proletarian of wild capitalism, owning nothing. But as we see, even such draconian mechanisms have not achieved the desired result. Millions are willing to make any sacrifices just to preserve their lives.
Among other things, the law requires men who turned 18 abroad to return, undergo a medical examination, and register. This means they are automatically restricted to leave the country if they comply with this requirement. However, most young men that reached adulthood abroad have left Ukraine two years ago, having been integrated in other countries and enrolled in tetriary education. It is hard to imagine anyone deciding to give all this up and return to Ukraine, thus depriving themselves of a future.
However, outside the Ukrainian state, the mobilization law practically puts all Ukrainian men of conscription age abroad at risk. The government calls for all who have updated their information to return to Ukraine for a medical examination. Meanwhile, avoiding the law will lead not only to huge fines, freezing of all accounts in Ukraine, and seizure of movable and immovable property but also to denial of consular services and revocation of driver’s licenses. This is, in essence, a complete severance of all ties with the Ukrainian state.
As a result, the Kyiv regime can only solve the mobilization task from the sources it currently has. One of the first is conscripts with exemptions or deferrals who do not hide anywhere. Primarily, this is young people under 25 who, according to Ministry of Defense data, most willingly updated their data without fear of conscription. Notably, the U.S. has repeatedly called on the Ukrainian authorities to lower the conscription age and start mobilizing youth from the age of 18. The UAF periodically makes similar statements. In theory, reservations for workers can also be reconsidered. However, according to employers’ statements, there is already a massive shortage of labor in Ukraine.
Another equally realistic resource is conscripts abroad. According to the above-mentioned data from the Ministry of Defense, only one in ten updated their information abroad. Various Kyiv regime figures say that those who refuse to update their data will be the first to be put on the wanted list.
Kyiv has repeatedly stated that they want maximum cooperation from European rulers to return conscription-age men living in the EU to Ukraine. As of now, EU officials have not devised a specific mechanism for returning Ukrainian conscripts from EU countries. However, with the prolongation of hostilities, this request will only grow. It should be noted that in the EU, all Ukrainian refugees are in plain sight. It is much harder to hide here than in Ukraine, as there are no alternatives to the provided housing to live elsewhere and hide. Not to mention the ability to work without official employment.
The Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski has repeatedly suggested limiting benefits for Ukrainian men. He believes that all EU countries should introduce benefit restrictions for Ukrainian draft dodgers. Germany is also beginning to talk about this. In particular, Bavarian Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann expressed support for denying benefits to Ukrainian men. Currently, there is no mechanism for extraditing and sending Ukrainian men to the front from the EU. In Germany, there is even a legal provision allowing for asylum if a citizen of another country is forcibly conscripted. However, this is only a matter of time.
But the main question of this entire mobilization campaign is what justifies such large-scale tasks to put the maximum number of Ukrainian men of conscription age “under arms.” In the third year of the war, an increasing number of experts express skepticism about the possibility of the UAF reaching the 1991 borders. Fewer and fewer believe that there are any chances of reaching the February 2022 borders, let alone successfully counterattacking and recapturing any significant city (such as Avdiivka, for instance).
In reality, Kyiv and its allies do have a plan. In my opinion, it is as adventurous as the notorious attempt to take Kyiv in three days. Of all the craziest scenarios of the Russian-Ukrainian war considered by experts, there is a concept of a so-called prolonged war. An example of this concept can be found in an article by Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published in February this year. According to their calculations, Russia will continue to win in this conflict for at least two more years. However, after 2026, Russia’s combat power will significantly decrease, and its industry could be severely undermined.
In simple terms, these experts believe that if Ukrainians continue fighting Russia for at least two to three more years, Russia’s economic and military potential will not hold. This strategy of confronting the Russian ruling class relies on a prolonged conflict that would literally shake the situation within Russian society.
This is similar to what they tried to achieve at the start of the war when the actual state of the Russian army became apparent. This is likely why then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited Kyiv and convinced Zelensky to continue the war. It was hoped that the Russian ruling class would not hold and collapse in 2022. But this did not happen. This mistake, if not a crime, was costly for the Ukrainian people.
However, Kyiv continues to believe in this idea. This was revealed by Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán after his world tour. According to him, Zelensky continues to believe that Russia will have to resort to full mobilization by mid-next year, leading to internal destabilization in Russia. “Therefore, Zelensky is confident that time is on Ukraine’s side,” he explained.
After the adventurous story with former British Prime Minister Johnson, who, on a whim, convinced Zelensky to continue the war, this is Zelensky’s second gamble, even more criminal and irresponsible. It will only result in new casualties, tens of thousands of senselessly killed Ukrainian soldiers, if not hundreds of thousands! Just think: the Kyiv rulers plan to continue fighting for several more years, depleting their country, maximally depleting their own working-age population, and thereby the future of entire generations. All for the goal of inciting a phantom rebellion in Russia.
However, as the current situation shows, the true masters of the Kyiv regime have no sympathy for ordinary Ukrainians. To implement their plans and intentions regarding the Russian ruling class, they attempt to drive unwilling Ukrainian men to slaughter through absolutely draconian methods.
The cynicism of this entire concept lies in the fact that its implementation allows the current usurpers, represented by Zelensky and company, to make a decent profit from this bloody massacre. In case of trouble, they will all flee to London with their loot, leaving the cripples and widows with their problems!
At the same time, in the near future it will become clear whether such plans will work. A failed mobilization campaign by the fall will likely lead figures of the Kyiv regime and their sponsors to decide to freeze the conflict along the front line and enter into negotiations with Putin, which would be a serious reputational defeat for the entire West. Therefore, the stakes here are extremely high.
But if the mechanism of forced mobilization—including with the help of those same Ukrainian “blackshirts”—proves effective, the war will drag on for several more years. And one of the first signs of the successful implementation of the above-mentioned concept of defeating Putin will be a forced decision by Russia’s ruling class to also proceed with mobilization.
